While the number of COVID-19 cases in Alberta is only a quarter of what is projected in the probable model, Premier Jason Kenney says we shouldn't drop our guard.
Yesterday afternoon, Kenney said there were 69 more confirmed cases and one more death from the coronavirus. That brings the total to 1,569 cases from nearly 73,000 tests completed.
Sadly, the 40th person taken was another resident of the McKenzie Towne continuing care facility, bringing the total number of deaths at that facility to 18.
There have been 28 deaths in the Calgary zone, seven in the Edmonton zone, four in the north zone, and one person in the central zone.
In the Cochrane-Springbank region, there have been 13 cases. Nine have recovered, including Cochrane's Erin Calver, who has now returned home after 13 days in a Calgary hospital.
In Rocky View County, there have been 25 cases, 17 recovered and eight active.
There are 47 people hospitalized, a reduction of one since Friday's report. Thirteen are being treated in intensive care.
Kenney says hospitalization has been relatively stable this week.
"Our numbers are far lower than the hardest-hit areas of Europe and the United States, and significantly lower than we've seen in provinces like Quebec and Ontario."
He says the health protocols have proven beneficial, and need to stay in place.
"It is not a reason to stop our collective efforts to stop the spread, but it is a reason on this weekend of hope for many people to take some hope in the progress that we're making."
Late last week, Alberta Health Care released three models of possible spread: extreme, elevated, and probable.
The most probable scenario for Alberta suggests the virus will reach its peak mid-May. An estimated 820 people could require hospitalization during the peak period, with more than a quarter requiring critical care.
Modelling and scenarios continue to be updated as new data emerges. It is designed to demonstrate expected trends, not as a predictor of day-to-day increases in hospitalization rates.