This week Statistics Canada released its latest production estimates on principal field crop production, posting some surprises on canola numbers.
Market analyst Brian Voth says the trade was expecting production to be roughly 18.1 million tonnes, with the highest estimates for the report around 20 million tonnes. However, in the actual report, Stats Can says it's only expecting 17 million tonnes of canola.
When taking the somewhat challenging growing season into account, Voth thinks Stats Canada's estimate is actually quite reasonable as compared to trade expectations, and perhaps even a little high.
"Right now Stats Canada is using a 38 bu/ac average yield, which, that's probably doable, but there's been an awful lot of disease this year too, and with how dry it was during the spring, we had a lot of patchy germination and emergence, and that's led to a lot of variability in fields," Voth says.
Because of similar disease and weather issues, Voth thinks Stats Canada's numbers on wheat could also be a bit high.
Stats Canada expects wheat production to jump by 10.5 per cent from last year, reaching 30.5 million tonnes.
"Obviously it's not in the bin yet, and with all of the moisture we've had and acres being drowned out, I would say some of these numbers are a little bit questionable," he says. "The other part production that doesn't factor in is what the quality is going to look like. That's a whole different story yet."
If this wheat number is realized, it would be the second time in 25 years that Canadian wheat production has exceeded 30 million tonnes.